| | | | Context: Over the past year, Dr. Jill Glasspool-Malone, my co-author and wife of almost fifty years, and I have been building and testing a six-layer analytical framework for assessing compliance with the Biological Weapons Convention using only open sources. We have published seven applications of it, covering the Wuhan Institute of Virology, African swine fever in Spain, respiratory syncytial virus, Lyme disease, the Dugway Proving Ground anthrax shipments, the H5N1 panzootic, and the Omicron variant. In the Georgia case, the framework’s first pass returned a sixty-five percent probability of laboratory origin. Imposing base rates and reliability weighting brought that figure down to twenty-three percent. The method works as a brake on confirmation bias.’ |